The European: Mr Kiesewetter, you are a member of the German Bundestag’s Foreign Affairs committee and an expert on security and defence. You recently called for the European Union (EU) to reduce its dependence on NATO. Can you explain the background to your statement?
Roderich Kiesewetter: I am not talking about NATO as an alliance. This alliance is essential for the survival of the rules-based order in the global systemic war in which we already find ourselves. I am more concerned about credible burden sharing, as in Europe, and especially in Germany, our security is not based on our own efforts, on resilience and combat readiness. It is based on the security provided by the United States (US) in terms of armed forces, but also and above all, in terms of the US nuclear umbrella, as well as cooperation in the field of intelligence. More European independence and more burden sharing should not lead to separation from the US, but rather strengthen both the transatlantic partnership and NATO.
The European: This is even more important as the US is turning its strategic compass to other regions.
Kiesewetter: Indeed, the US will in the future need more resources in the Indo-Pacific, to keep sea lanes free, protect countries in the region from China’s claws and increase deterrence. Therefore, credible burden sharing by the Europeans is essential to secure continuous support for Ukraine and push back Russia. It is also important to show the American people that we Europeans have understood; we are incredibly grateful for the security provided by the US, but we know that it is overdue to do more for ourselves in Europe and internationally.
The European: Why is your country so often criticised for its reduced defence capabilities?
Kiesewetter: Germany is miles away from being able to provide for its own security and defence. We are not fulfilling our NATO commitments; we are not living up to the pledge of dedicating 2% of our GDP to defence and the Bundeswehr is far from being combat ready. Too much of the military hardware is not in working condition and ammunition stocks are empty. And I see no willingness on the part of the Chancellor to change this situation.
The European: However, Olaf Scholz promised on 10 November 2023 a radical change in terms of defence capabilities, reaching the 2% immediately.
Kiesewetter: For the moment, this is only a promise, and it lacks perspective. We need to spend not 2% but nearer 3% of GDP on defence, along the lines of what Poland is spending, and not only €100bn in special funds for the Bundeswehr, but €300bn. Furthermore, Europe has to become on a par with the US when it comes to military support for Ukraine. This is urgent and time is running out.
The European: What would greater independence of the Union mean in practical terms?
Kiesewetter: We need to look at how wars are fought today. They are hybrid wars in which all aspects of security are under threat. We also need to pay particular attention to three areas of dependence: energy, technology and trade, and security, which means that strategically, Europe must become less dependent on raw materials and technologies from autocracies such as Russia and China. As for boosting the European armaments industry, that should have been started a year and a half ago and we are still not doing enough. Finally, we must find new partners among the rules-based nations with a focus on geostrategy and geoeconomics, as Russia and China have already switched to a “war economy”.
The European: Indeed, we cannot just stand by and watch as we are overrun. What does all this mean in terms of military capabilities?
Kiesewetter: Conventional capabilities will remain relevant, but new ones must be added. The protection of critical infrastructure, particularly in the maritime sector, i.e. seabed warfare, will become more important. Cyber capabilities will also become more important, as will measures to counter disinformation and hybrid warfare. We are currently seeing new and disruptive technologies in use in Ukraine. NATO could benefit from this experience if Ukraine becomes a member. All of this must be considered as inter-connected. We are already under attack, as we are the target of an ongoing hybrid war waged against us by an alliance of autocracies from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. This is why we need what I call a revolution in capabilities, procurement, technology and, above all, mindset.
The European: To put your statements in perspective, are you going so far as to call for strategic autonomy for the EU, as the French President did in his Sorbonne speech in 2017 but has since backtracked?
Kiesewetter: A lot has happened since 2017. As I said, the EU must become more independent in terms of economy, technology and energy and do more for its own security. However, the EU will become weaker if we do this separately from the US. We can only survive in a systemic war if we become more united, more decisive and stronger as an alliance, with the US and other countries joining forces in an alliance of rules-based nations.
The European: But do we not risk a collapse of the entire security structure if the possible next President of the US promises to withdraw from NATO? What would the consequences be for Europe?
Kiesewetter: The consequences would indeed be catastrophic, because without NATO we cannot guarantee our own security. It would be an invitation to Russia to attack other countries in Europe after Ukraine. Our deterrence in Europe would collapse without the US nuclear umbrella. Ultimately this would lead to us Europeans living under Russian influence, in bondage and in poverty, or, alternatively, fighting a war against Russia on our soil with enormous armament costs and sacrifices, of the kind we see today in Ukraine. A US withdrawal from NATO would be an irreparable failure of the West. For China it would be an invitation to attack Taiwan. Taiwan would then not be able to count on support from US. The rules-based order would then be history and we would live in poverty and oppression in the future.
The European: That is a very bleak scenario. What needs to be done to ensure that it does not happen?
Kiesewetter: Instead of waiting apathetically, we should prevent this scenario by once and for all pursuing a credible burden sharing strategy with the US within NATO. As I said, this would keep the US on board and supporting Ukraine in such a way that it can restore its 1991 borders. We need not only to stop Russia but also contain it, until Russia has learned to lose, which means to accept the right of existence of all neighbour states, unconditionally!
The European: Mr Kiesewetter, thank you so much for this exchange of ideas and your openness.
Roderich Kiesewetter MdB
has been a member of the German Bundestag since 2009. He is representative on foreign affairs for the CDU/CSU caucus and deputy chairperson in the parliamentary oversight panel supervising Germany’s intelligence services. He is a former General Staff Officer of the Bundeswehr, Col (GS) ret. He served almost 30 years in the Bundeswehr in national assignments, with NATO in Brussels and on foreign missions.
