by Philippe Geffroy, PPRD Med Team Leader/ISTC Senior Programme Manager, mand Jean Muylaert, PPRD Med Deputy Team Leader/ISTC Expert for new technologies, Astana
PPRD Med (Prevention, Preparedness, Response to natural & man-made Disasters in the Southern & Eastern Mediterranean) is a European Commission (DG ECHO) led three-year programme that responds to the tailored needs and demands of civil protection and civil defence authorities from 10 countries in the eastern and southern Mediterranean (in alphabetical order): Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Palestine, and Tunisia.
This article focuses on one of the five pillars of PPRD Med, aiming at familiarising civil protection teams with the regular use of geospatial analytics using new tools and Geospatial Information Systems (GIS) to improve understanding of the factors that trigger crises for better early warning monitoring: this contributes to improving prevention, preparedness, and response processes. Using space data and GIS is a game-changer for civil protection and crisis management administrations in charge, implying the digitalisation of the crisis management processes.
What satellite imagery can offer
Satellite imagery offers accurate and reliable spatial information during emergencies, enabling effective prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery efforts. When ground-based data is limited, satellite imagery complements geospatial information on site (drone, helicopter, airplane).
In many ways, satellite imagery impacts disaster risk reduction, one of which is its role in the early detection of natural hazards. When integrated with statistical data, geospatial imagery can also facilitate the identification of population concentrations, leading to more efficient evacuation strategies. During a disaster, crisis authorities rely on satellite images to accurately identify affected areas. After the devasting floods and dam breaks in Derna, Libya, in 2023, very high-resolution (VHR) satellite data was used to locate gatherings of victims on shore, assess the road network, and provide a safe location for base camps and Emergency Management Teams (EMTs).
Furthermore, any disaster entails cascading effects that can undermine the response efforts of authorities and severely impair the resilience and recovery of local communities over time.
For instance, severe drought conditions and prolonged heat waves can endanger human health and significantly stress vegetation, potentially leading to wildfires, reducing agriculture and food supplies for the population and livestock, with substantial socio-economic consequences.
Evolving risks – the relevance of Earth observation
Recent improvements have shown that risks evolve as the environment, human pressure, and climate change over time. The resulting frameworks build upon the disaster risk management cycle by emphasising the process of reviewing and updating risk management actions. Such new frameworks are recognised as especially useful in addressing the specific problem of climate change, which involves a constant evolution of hazards, such as the more frequent and intense heat waves, drought, and storm surges.
The resulting “disaster risk continuum” schemes can be considered complementary to the disaster risk management cycle, as they provide a framework to constantly improve disaster risk management. For example, even for earthquakes, changes in exposure, ground deformation patterns, the retrofitting of the structures, and slight damage after an event modify the behaviour and vulnerability of the built environment. Hence, these new frameworks can be generalised to all types of risks that evolve due to urbanisation, the ageing of buildings and infrastructure such as dams, and changing human interventions, which collectively can be grouped together within the concept of “global change.”
For the space-based Earth observation sector, the value of the disaster risk management framework is to identify where satellite data can be useful within the civil protection’s existing workflow, and these actions can be split into two categories:
- Actions and decisions relevant to the prevention of disaster risks with the main objective of minimising the impact of future disasters, both in terms of human lives and costs, which can be met in three ways: by reducing the hazard, where possible, the vulnerability of exposed assets or the exposure itself.
- Actions and decisions relevant to the preparedness, response, and recovery of disaster risks with the main objective being preparing for the management of the crisis. This requires pre-disaster information to forecast disasters to deliver appropriate alerts, save lives and provide immediate assistance, minimise the impacts, and to progressively restore activities and services during and after the crisis. Users will, for example, test their procedures against pre-defined disaster risk scenarios before the crisis, which requires pre-disaster knowledge of the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. During the crisis, other information, such as displacement and disaster damage maps, is required.
This illustrates that workflows within disaster risk management involve different procedures, constraints, and needs depending on the positioning of each stakeholder concerning the disaster management cycle. Specifically, the time constraint is critical during the preparedness, response, and recovery phases, whereas prevention is less constrained by time but is often more constrained by limited resources.
The fourth pillar of PPRD Med
After nine months of inception, a common agreement was found on implementing satellite imagery to enrich the crisis management process for Civil Protection Directorates in each country participating in PPRD Med, despite a lack of connection between space agencies when they exist and land civil protection organisations. It was decided to begin the implementation phase with country-tailored roadmaps. A major activity was implemented, relating to the acquisition of skills for the collection and processing of satellite data from the Copernicus programme for specific scenarios based on flood event crises with a cascade effect for five countries.
The PPRD Med Objectives 2024 will be presented individually through the three-level PPRD Med digital platform. A full knowledge transfer programme using a learning management system (LMS) is being established at level two, namely the “didactic” level. In addition to training for the creation of a digital map from satellite data by country teams, the PPRD Med team will also set up and train the country teams on AI-based algorithms, simulation and modelling applications for scenarios, and monitoring early warning systems (EWS). Moreover, specific software tools for natural-hazard triggered technological accidents (NATech) risks will be developed later in tier three of the project. Level three will use the PPRD Med Visual Intelligence Platform for crisis management and has yet to be defined so far during the project’s third year.
Once the first learning phase of the five pilot countries is completed in June 2024, the next challenge will be the transfer of these digital value-added analytics into the existing paper-based documents. Obviously, the digitalisation of the processes will enable it to reach the level of a Decision Support System for Crisis Management (D2SCM) sooner or later. Implementing a digitised system that provides reliable information on potential emergency situations and their causes, with automated control for early prediction, is groundbreaking but not technically challenging. The primary challenge lies in organising and digitising data exchanges across administrations using a unified Geographic Information System for Civil Protection (GISCP).
The most daunting challenge, however, is internal and organisational. It involves aligning risk managers, data analysts, IT teams, and early responders to transition from traditional paper-based manuals to a digital, interactive, and dynamic crisis management system. Digitising crisis management processes is pivotal for success.
Pillar 4 of the PPRD Med focuses on this, aiming to identify and address operational challenges through pilot projects and closely collaborate with country teams to devise solutions and propose a suitable path forward.
