by Gerhard Arnold, publisher and theologican, Middle East correspondent of this magazine, Würzburg
The states of the Middle East have experienced considerable upheavals over the past few years, which should in principle lead to a reduction in tensions and greater stability. However, the Gaza war and the de facto state of war between Israel and Iran harbour considerable potential for escalation. The biggest factor of uncertainty remains the regime of the mullahs in Iran.
The group of four on the move
Egypt, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, who call themselves “the quartet” see themselves as the vanguard of a new and better Arabia. The shock of the “Arab Spring” in 2011 made them realise that there is an urgent need for rapid economic and social improvements in the Arab world to give young people prospects for the future. The Egyptian government under al-Sisi does not need any new unrest and the population, which now stands at almost 110 million, needs better living conditions but has insufficient resources of its own. Population pressure and growing supply insecurity threaten the country’s continued political and social stability.
Non-alignment as a new strategic goal
The upheaval in the Arab states of the Middle East also encompasses the geopolitical reorientation that Saudi Arabia in particular, the economically and politically strongest power on the Arabian Peninsula, has pursued following the confusing policies towards the Middle East of US Presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Today, the main plank of Joe Biden’s security policy is containing China, combined with a stratgic withdrawal from the Middle East. In response, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) has also been seeking better relationships with China and Iran as part of his own geopolitical reorientation. On 18 March 2023, the Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers agreed in Beijing on a rapprochement and the resumption of diplomatic relations. The Saudi leadership is also hoping that this will put an end to the missile and drone attacks on Saudi territory by the pro-Iranian Houthis in Yemen.
But economic developments are also driving Saudi reorientation towards non-alignment. MbS is looking to the post oil era and wants to diversify its economy, promote tourism and become the new banking and technology centre of the Middle East. This involves opening up the country to Chinese investors in particular. His “Vision 2030” includes a gigantic construction and techno-logy programme.
Syria’s readmission to the Arab League at the instigation of Saudi Arabia – publicly celebrated at the summit in Jeddah on 19 May 2023 – was also linked to the hope that Syrian leader Assad would
now make serious efforts to end the civil war in his country.
Arab rapprochement with Israel
One of the positive developments in the Middle East is the attitude towards Israel. The small island kingdom of Bahrain under King Hamad al Khalifa began to visibly improve its political relations with Israel as early as 2017. The leading ruling house in the UAE, the Sheikh Zayid al Nahyan family, also made the pragmatic calculation that Israel was a very interesting military and technological cooperation partner.
With strong support from the then US President Donald Trump, the “Abraham Accords Declaration” between Israel, Bahrain and UAE was signed in Washington on 15 September 2020. They established diplomatic relations between Israel and the two Arab states and opened up prospects for greater cooperation in the economic and technological fields. Regional peacebuilding was also agreed. Morocco joined the agreement on 10 December 2020 and Sudan on 7 January 2021.
Due to pressure from the Arab populations, the Gaza war has led to a temporary standstill in cooperation under the Abraham Accords Declaration. Saudi Arabia is now likely to be prevented from formally joining the Abraham Accords for some time, but will continue to cautiously explore further rapprochement with Israel informally, despite the sceptical attitude of its own population.
The major problem of Iran
Since the mullahs came to power in Iran in 1979, the Shiite country has pursued a largely destructive regional policy. At its core is the effort to export the Shiite revolution to neighbouring Sunni Arab countries and destabilise them. In addition, the regime wants to drive the US, with all its might, out of the Middle East and wipe out Israel, which it sees as a vassal of the US.
Iranian proxies have made massive efforts to destabilise Iraq since the Iran/Iraq War in 2003. Iran’s political and military influence in Syria since the beginning of the civil war in 2011 is considerable, above all due to its military involvement in supporting the Assad regime. Iranian military bases threaten Israel. The regime has also been supporting the Houthi rebels in Yemen for some years and has allowed them, at the very least, to attack Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and now also Israel, with rockets and cruise missiles. Lebanon has been completely destabilised politically and is economically devastated, not least due to the efforts of the pro-Iranian Hezbollah, a Shiite militia.
Can there be peace with this problem state? No. The serious efforts by several Arab states to achieve regional stability, including with Israel, are being massively fought by Iran.
Against this background, Iran’s dangerous nuclear programme also has to be mentioned, particularly because Iran now produces highly enriched uranium that can be used to make nuclear weapons. The Iranian mullah regime is therefore the biggest obstacle to peace in the Middle East. Israel is particularly under threat because there are a number of Iranian proxies in its immediate neighbourhood: Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Assad regime in Syria, all of whom have vowed to destroy Israel. The major Iranian attack on Israel on 14 April 2024 has also heightened fears among neighbouring Arab states of more Iranian aggression.
The Palestinian question
According to popular opinion, the solution to the Israel-
Palestine conflict lies in the so-called two-state solution, entailing the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. However, it would be more accurate to speak of a three-state solution because the Gaza Strip, under the rule of Hamas, has become a separate political area to the West Bank, which is self-governed by the Palestinian authority. Israeli society, which is now deeply divided, is probably no longer capable of making decisions with regard to a peace solution with the Palestinians. And seen in the cold light of day, the Gaza conflict is insoluble as long as 2.3 million people in 364 square kilometers have no basis for their economic existence. The Gaza conflict is therefore likely to be the hardest nut to crack in efforts to bring peace to the Middle East.
Conclusion
There are visible efforts underway to calm the conflict and restore stability in the Middle East, as Israel, the US and several Arab states are working intensively to this end. However, strong population growth, not only in Egypt, is exacerbating social problems in many Arab countries. In addition, new challenges are emerging, like climate change and water scarcity. Three further factors continue to put a strain on regional stability: the still smouldering civil war in Syria, the economic collapse of Lebanon and the almost failed state of Iraq. As unbearable as the Israelo-Palestinian conflict is and will remain, it is also clear that Iran, under the continuing rule of religious fanatics, is still the greatest threat to this already conflict-ridden region. This will remain the case with the successor of President Ebrahim Raïssi who died in a helicopter crash in May 2024.
