by Hartmut Bühl, Paris.
At the end of November 2024, the hitherto steadfast Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy spoke, for the first time and with a heavy heart, about possible, albeit tem-
porary, surrendering of territory to Russia.
In an interview with Sky News, Zelenskyy said: “If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control.” He hopes that Ukraine will be able to recover the occupied territories by diplomatic means in the future.
Zelenskyy is primarily concerned about the growing moral fatigue of the Ukrainian population and therefore its fundamental will to hold out, both on the frontline and the home front. Added to this are Moscow’s cyber-attacks and demoralising propaganda, designed to destabilise the population.
But what Zelenskyy fears more than a military defeat are Russian attacks on critical infrastructure. On 17 November, starting at 3am, major Ukrainian cities were hit by drone strikes aimed at destroying the country’s energy infrastructure, which has already been significantly damaged over the past three years. According to Ukrainian sources, 120 missiles and 90 drones were fired into the skies over Ukraine, of which only 70 were shot down.
The remaining missiles destroyed energy production facilities and electricity distribution stations. For the coming winter, the Ukrainians need 18 to 20 gigawatts of production capacity and currently only 12 gigawatts are secured, an amount which is at risk of being further reduced with each attack.
These Russian attacks on energy supplies are clearly aimed at undermining the morale of the Ukrainian population and destroying Ukrainian industrial capabilities. An additional goal of Putin’s could be to show Donald Trump that he is determined to negotiate from a position of strength in any upcoming negotiations with the next US president. And no one knows how or if Trump will represent Ukraine’s interests.
After almost three years of war, Ukraine is clearly at a critical juncture: its armed forces are in steady retreat in the east and lack heavy weapons, which are only being delivered half-heartedly by the west. But above all there is a lack of trained soldiers. Whether the deployment of American short-range ballistic missiles aimed at Russian territory will be a game changer is questionable.
An increasing number of states friendly to Ukraine are calling for an end to the war to avoid Ukraine’s defeat, while Putin is threatening to reduce the city of Kyiv to dust with his hypersonic missile “Oreshnik”. With the help of his dictator friend Kim Jong-un, Putin can, at least temporarily, make up for the huge losses of the Russian armed forces with North Korean soldiers. And he is also drawing supplies from Iran, mainly drones.
In view of possible future negotiations that Trump may impose, it is of the utmost importance that Europe increase its support to Ukraine in terms of arms and economic assistance so that it can negotiate from a position of strength.
Both warring parties must consider their political, economic and military future: Ukraine within the European Union and NATO, Russia to overcome its isolation and restore its global political position, which cannot happen without a “reconciliation” with Europe.
