Interview with Roderich Kiesewetter MdB,
Member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the German Bundestag, Berlin
The European: Mr Kiesewetter, America has voted and Donald Trump will take power on 20 January 2025. It seems clear that this will mean a paradigm shift in transatlantic security policy. Is Europe prepared for it?
Roderich Kiesewetter: I’m not sure if it’s a paradigm shift, at least it shouldn’t be. Because, let’s be honest, Europe is already lagging far behind in terms of our contribution to transatlantic security. Even under Kamala Harris, the pivot to Asia would inevitably have continued and the demand for burden-shifting would have been raised sooner or later. President Trump however will start by demanding even more from Europe and dealing more consistently with the failings of some Member States. The pressure on Europe to act is growing. It must finally understand that the transatlantic partnership is not a one-way street. Many countries have long since understood this and are therefore fulfilling their commitments and stepping up their defence spending.
The European: How do you view your own country in this context?
Kiesewetter: Germany has not delivered on its NATO pledges. This is now backfiring on us. In the US, the concept of integrated deterrence and defence has dominated security policy to date. This concept is necessary to take action against China, Russia, Iran, and North-Korea (CRINK) and the way in which these states are already waging war against us as part of an overall strategy. Germany needs this approach of integrated deterrence and defence, which we have not even begun to formulate yet due to the failure of the German government. The US election does not change the need for Germany and the Bundeswehr to develop this, but the election of Trump makes it more urgent.
The European: Donald Trump has stated that if elected president he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. What can we expect in terms of American support for Ukraine and what does that mean for Europe? Is there a risk that the European Union and NATO will break apart over
this issue?
Kiesewetter: It remains to be seen how Trump will behave towards Ukraine. Clearly, Ukraine is not the blueprint for Trump that it is for those countries who see the rule-based order under pressure. He will probably propose a deal with Putin, as announced. If this fails, there are several options. Either he will withdraw support completely or perhaps even increase it, although that is a very optimistic view. He could also simply decrease support without a deal. In any case, there is a danger that NATO will lose its strength and deterrent effect. That would entail an enormous risk of the war expanding to the rest of Europe and ultimately represents an enormous danger for Ukraine and for us.
The European: What are the consequences if NATO loses its deterrent effect?
Kiesewetter: It would be tantamount to an invitation to Putin not only to test NATO in Europe, as he is already doing, but to expand the war. However, it is possible to counteract the worst-case scenario with smart policies. And Ukraine also has added value to offer the US thanks to its technological capabilities. Unfortunately, despite countless warnings, Germany has not prepared for these scenarios at all. In any scenario, Europe must finally go “all-in” financially and materially to support Ukraine.
The European: Do you see the risk of a split in Europe and the NATO states?
Kiesewetter: We are already seeing such a split, between those who want to act proactively, involve the US by making their own efforts, form a coalition of the willing to provide all-out support for Ukraine. On the other side, there are those states that want to wait and see, continue in their strategic blindness, desperately clinging to old beliefs that have long since been proven wrong and who think they can tame the terrorist states of the CRINK alliance with appeasement. Germany in particular.
The European: Has Europe’s time come?
Kiesewetter: We in Europe have the choice to decide what our future looks like: should the rule of law and the international rules-based order prevail, or do we allow the CRINK states’ regional zones of influence to spread terror and injustice? Ukraine can become a negative or a positive blueprint.
The European: As you said, Europe has to take on more responsibility for its own security. What does this mean in practice?
Kiesewetter: We need a security concept that encompasses integrated security and overall defence and war capability. In Europe, we must overhaul the post-war welfare systems we have settled into and be prepared to fight for freedom, just as the Americans did when they liberated Europe in the Second World War. So, we must shoulder more of the burden and do for ourselves what the US has done for so long. We must therefore be prepared to deter militarily and economically.
The European: What does this imply in terms of defence spending?
Kiesewetter: We need to reorganise our spending priorities. The Europeans must invest at least 3 % of their GDP in defence, build up massive capacities and boost arms production. In order to achieve NATO’s Minimum Capability Requirement (MCR), Germany, for example, needs 400,000 soldiers and a defence budget of at least €110bn. There also needs to be a geostrategic shift in the burden. Europe must become more involved within Europe and its “near abroad”, e.g. in the Western Balkans, in North Africa and the Middle East, so that the US can engage more resources in the Indo-Pacific.
The European: Liberal democracies around the world are under “attack” by an alliance of autocracies. What does Europe need to do to ensure that the US remains the leading nation in transatlantic security?
Kiesewetter: We must think in terms of total defence, because the CRINK alliance is attacking us not only militarily but also economically and in hybrid warfare with grey zone tactics. The US needs a united and strong Europe if we want to put a stop to China’s imperial ambitions. Europe can also help build an alliance of rules-based states. But first and foremost, we have to decide what we want. There is no middle ground, no more partnership with China or appeasement of Iran or Russia. We need determination and consistency in dealing with CRINK.
A lot will depend on an intelligent response to the new deal mentality that a Trump presidency will promote. We don’t have to share it, but we have to offer the US something that will convince them to stick with NATO and the transatlantic security architecture in their own interests.
The European: Mr Kiesewetter, thank you for these insights.
