by Hartmut Bühl, Paris.
Shortly before the thousand-day anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a phone call to Moscow. His nice idea was to ask Putin to end the war and call his troops home.
While in the western camp criticism and approval of Scholz’s initiative were evenly balanced, Ukraine complained that such talks would reduce Russia’s isolation and carry the risk of opening Pandora’s box. After Trump’s election victory, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fears that Ukraine could end up being abandoned and forced to give up territory for peace in negotiations with Moscow.
Putin reacted calmly to the global turmoil that Scholz’s phone call had provoked. He stated that discussions are always useful – as long as the right topics are discussed! It is clear that for him, they include consolidating the territorial gains, including Crimea, that his army has made in the war so far, as well as Ukraine renouncing NATO membership. The Russian dictator, who recently lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons against other nuclear powers and their allies, opposes any freezing of the conflict because he wants to make all of Russia’s gains permanent.
However, against the background of a global situation plagued by uncertainty – the only certainty being Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 – President Zelenskyy played his cards wisely: bearing in mind that Trump has promised to end the war within 24 hours and that no one knows
what this would mean for Ukraine, Zelenskyy went out of his way
to congratulate Trump on his victory, assured him that the west needs him and stated that “a strong and unshakable leadership role for the US and the western world is irreplaceable for a just peace”. However, whenever Zelenskyy appears on a screen, one can see his fatigue and feel his desperation about his country’s plight after 1000 days of war. He declared in a radio interview on 16 November that he wants to bring peace to Ukraine by diplomatic means in 2025.
In the meantime, Russian troops, despite huge losses, are continuing to make incremental gains on Ukrainian territory. And while Ukraine is running out of soldiers, the outgoing US President Joe Biden is calling on Ukraine to mobilise more young people. To support the Russian side, 10,000 North Koreans are in the process of being deployed. Some of them have already deserted, after discovering the harsh reality on the ground.
Trump’s victory has acted as an accelerator. A taboo was broken when, in mid-November, Joe Biden finally authorised Ukraine to use American ATACMS missiles against Russian military infrastructure. Moscow responded by firing a long-range RS-26 missile at the large city of Dnipro in eastern Ukraine.
The much-feared escalation seems to be happening, even though no one really wants it as everyone stands to lose. Paradoxically however, it is also increasing pressure for possible peace negotiations.
What role Chinese President Xi Jinping might play in bringing peace to Ukraine remains largely unknown, but neither Putin nor Trump will be able achieve it without him. One thing seems predictable, however: Europe is divided over how to end the war and is therefore unlikely to play a decisive role in the peace process, as the German Chancellor’s failed attempt already suggests.
