by Professor Hideshi Tokuchi, President of the Research Institute for Peace and Security (RIPS), and Asia correspondent for this magazine, Tokyo
The Government of Japan released its new National Security Strategy in December 2022. The document states that it is a dramatic transformation in implementation of Japan’s national security policy after the end of the second world war.
Japan’s new National Security Strategy
Japan’s new National Security Strategy aims to establish a robust defence posture which enables the country to defend itself on its own by strengthening its comprehensive national power.
Not only diplomatic and defence capabilities but also economic, technological and intelligence capabilities are to be enhanced as integral elements of comprehensive national power. The focal points in the new strategy are economic security and military defence.
Economic security
As for economic security, Japan will enhance its efforts for supply chain resilience, protection of critical infrastructure, sensitive data and information, and the fostering of advanced critical technologies, as a wide variety of threats through economic means from foreign countries is surfacing, particularly after the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Military defence
As for military defence, Japan will invest a great deal of financial resources in the fundamental reinforcement of defence capabilities. Japan pledges to increase its defence budget to the level of 2% of its current GDP in 2027. Its strong will to achieve this challenging goal is evident in the 27.4% increase in defence budget for 2023 while the average annual increase of Japan’s defence budget in the past decade was only around 1%. In order to effectively address sophisticated missile threats, Japan will have counterstrike capabilities against the territory of adversaries while continuing to defend against incoming missiles by a missile defence network. As having counterstrike capabilities was a sensitive issue in Japanese politics for a long time, the decision of the Kishida cabinet is a bold one. In addition, restoration of Japan’s military industrial base is highly prioritised, including reinforcement of research and development of new equipment.
Strong public support for the reform
The Japanese public support for the new strategy seems strong for the time being due to the acute security environment of the Indo-Pacific region. While it is necessary to keep monitoring it carefully, Japan’s efforts for national defence in accordance with the new strategy will take hold as far as Japanese politics continues to be stable.
Background of the strategy’s transformation
The work for the revision of Japan’s National Security Strategy started in the fall of 2021, i.e. before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The previous strategy document of 2013 was already outdated. It was established even before the Russian annexation of Crimea. As 2013 was still the age of constructive engagement with China, the systemic rivalry between the US and China was not as serious as today.
Russia, China, and North Korea
Russia has swayed the rules-based international order by invading Ukraine. Its military forces are active in the Pacific theatre, too. China aims to achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and to fully transform the People’s Liberation Army into world-class forces by the mid-21st century. Tension over the Taiwan Strait is high and China never denies the possibility of using military force against Taiwan. Partnership between Russia and China is being strengthened. North Korea clearly jettisoned its commitment to denuclearisation. It also continues to launch ballistic missiles against UN resolutions. Japan neighbours all these three nuclear authoritarian powers.
Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida said several times that Ukraine today might be east Asia tomorrow. A similar expression is also found in the new National Security Strategy. As he said in his keynote address at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in June 2022, no country or region in the world can shrug off the Russian invasion of Ukraine as someone else’s problem. This recognition is widely shared among the Japanese public.
Tensions between China and Taiwan
Of particular concern for Japan is the tension between China and Taiwan. Japan is only 110km away from Taiwan. G7 leaders reaffirmed “the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as indispensable to security and prosperity in the international community” in the G7 Hiroshima Leaders’ Communiqué in May 2022. It is a global challenge.
The nuclear threat and other challenges
Russia’s continuous threat of use of nuclear weapons is undermining the credibility of US extended deterrence. It is also wasting the global efforts to achieve a world without nuclear weapons. Japan’s further efforts to strengthen the deterrence and response capabilities of the Japan-US Alliance, including extended deterrence, as well as Japan’s diplomatic initiative for nuclear arms controls, disarmament and non-proliferation has become extremely important.
All these issues together with serious non-traditional security challenges such as climate change necessitated the revision of the 2013 edition of the National Security Strategy.
Security cooperation with the EU and NATO
In today’s globalised world, no one country can achieve its national security by itself. International partnership is indispensable. Security cooperation with like-minded countries continues to be one of the pillars of Japan’s national security policy. Security cooperation with European countries, NATO and the EU is going to be enhanced as a priority in accordance with the new National Security Strategy.
NATO’s Secretary General Stoltenberg said in Tokyo in February, “We may be oceans apart. But our security is closely connected.” A more accurate expression would be “We are connected by the oceans, and our security is inseparably connected.” Japan and Europe should align their views and policies, including strategic assessment of the security environment, coordination of their strategic priorities, and sharing of scarce resources to address common threats.
The Individually Tailored Partnership Programme (ITPP), which Japan and NATO agreed upon in July 2023 on the occasion of Prime Minister Kishida’s attendance at the recent NATO Summit, will work as the guideline for the enhancement of cooperation. Japan and NATO will enhance interoperability and their individual resilience across the peace-crisis spectrum, based on the ITPP, in which 16 specific goals in four priority issues are identified, including cyberdefence and maritime security.
As Japan continues to invest in its national defence and to enhance its partnership with NATO based on the ITPP, Japan will be a dependable partner for Europe for common security.
Professor Hideshi Tokuchi
joined the Defense Agency (the predecessor of the Ministry of Defense) of Japan in 1979 and served as Japan’s first-ever Vice-Minister of Defense for International Affairs from 2014 to 2015 after completing several senior assignments including Director-General of the Defense Policy Bureau. He is the President of the Research Institute for Peace and Security (RIPS) and teaches international security studies as a visiting professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS).
