by Babatunde Anthony Ojei, Country Director for Nigeria, International Rescue Committee, Abuja
While climate change may seem like a distant concern for many around the globe, it is a pressing reality for the communities served by the International Rescue Committee (IRC). The three global challenges of climate change, extreme poverty, and conflict are converging and becoming increasingly concentrated in a handful of states, accounting for 10% of the global population but over 60% of global humanitarian need, whilst only receiving one third of the climate adaptation financing compared to their stable counterparts.
Nigeria – floods, food insecurity and conflict
Nigeria finds itself squarely within this nexus, grappling with the harsh realities of climate change. Our susceptibility to climate-
related shocks, particularly flooding, places us amongst the most vulnerable nations to the impacts of climate change.
Flooding hazards have led to more displacements than any other climate disaster in Nigeria. The devastating floods of 2022 stand out as a grim reminder of the havoc caused by heavy climate induced rains, with over 1.4 million individuals displaced, 603 lives lost and more than 2,400 persons injured. It is the worst the country had seen since the 2012 floods, displacing over 2 million individuals, 363 lives lost, and the livelihoods of more than 16 million people profoundly impacted.
The challenges brought on by the floods are compounded by food insecurity and conflict in the region. Communities largely rely on subsistence farming and livestock herding for their food and livelihoods, making them highly vulnerable to natural calamities. Protracted and frequent conflict only exacerbate this vulnerability, disrupting agricultural practices and food distribution networks, thereby intensifying food insecurity and malnutrition within these communities.
The statistics are startling. Climate shocks are contributing to record numbers of acute malnutrition in children across the world, up to 60 million in 20221. Findings from a recent study2 in Nigeria underscore the alarming threat posed by climate change to the strides made in Nigeria towards reducing childhood malnutrition.
In order to better shield individuals in conflict-ridden areas from the dire consequences of the climate crisis, it is imperative for both the climate and humanitarian sectors to explore and implement innovative adaptation and resilience strategies tailored to conflict settings.
The effectiveness of anticipatory action
In Nigeria, with support from Google.org, the IRC has created a flood-risk monitoring platform that incorporates indigenous knowledge, hydrological and meteorological (hydromet) data and satellite information to better forecast impending droughts and trigger anticipatory cash payments3. This work was done in partnership with government actors, think tanks, the private sector and community leaders.
The findings from this project highlight the effectiveness of anticipatory action in addressing food insecurity, enabling farmers to diversify their crops, and providing vulnerable households with sustainable solutions, rather than resorting to short-term fixes like selling off livestock. The results indicate that providing anticipatory cash assistance to households residing in flood-prone regions mitigated adverse coping mechanisms, bolstered proactive climate adaptation measures, and spurred investment in productive assets when contrasted with households receiving aid post-flooding. The findings suggest that large, one-time anticipatory cash transfers can build households’ climate adaptive and resilience capacity, making them a promising intervention to reduce household vulnerability to future climate shocks.
Our research study found that anticipatory cash transfers yielded multifaceted benefits for households, enhancing their ability to cope with challenges and fortifying resilience against flood-related shocks. These transfers notably improved households’ coping strategies, ensuring sufficient food and safeguarding livelihoods. The anticipation of flood shocks spurred proactive measures, such as early harvesting, food stockpiling, and timely evacuation. The transfers stimulated productive investments in agricultural assets and livestock, surpassing the outcomes of post-flood cash assistance. Furthermore, recipients of anticipatory cash demonstrated a propensity for diversifying livelihoods, exemplified by labour reallocation initiatives like migrating for work, showcasing the breadth of positive outcomes generated by such interventions.
Preparing for more severe climate shocks
Whilst this study demonstrates positive outcomes to tackle immediate needs in the face of impending climate shocks, the reality is that these shocks are becoming more frequent and severe. In another iteration of the project expanded to urban areas, funded by the European Union, which is in its second year, flood trigger thresholds specific to each community are being identified to develop a trigger activation model. This will monitor flood indicators and provide advanced alerts, enabling residents to prepare for impending floods. Early warning messages will support community readiness for high-risk flood events.
The project will directly assist communities by providing resources and training, including in-kind donations of tools for flood prevention, resources for tree planting, and anticipatory cash. Through research and evaluation, the effectiveness of different community-led anticipatory actions will be assessed by implementing varying levels of support across treatment and control groups, such as comparing the outcomes of communities receiving anticipatory cash alone versus those engaging in community-led actions, thereby informing future strategies for flood resilience in urban areas.
As climate shocks continue to worsen and humanitarian funding needs remain unmet for both emergencies and early recovery, anticipatory approaches may be critical to meeting the short- and longer-term needs of climate- and conflict-affected households.
Innovations in adaptation are a critical step to effectively address ongoing challenges but we will not see significant impact so long as climate financing remains so inequitable for climate-vulnerable, conflict-affected communities. The funding disparity is even greater in the health sector, which has received less than 5% of climate adaptation financing4 in the last 10 years. We are grossly under-resourced to face climate driven health threats in the very places where they threaten the most lives. Climate finance contributors should commit 50% of all climate funding to adaptation by 2025, with a particular focus on adaptation finance for small-scale agriculture in the most conflict- and climate-impacted countries.
Coordination for anticipatory action and mitigation plans is needed for communities here in Nigeria and beyond. The international community cannot delay making them a focus of global climate efforts to ensure sustainable, meaningful progress on managing the impacts of climate change for the communities on the frontline already suffering the consequences.
International Rescue Committee
The International Rescue Committee (IRC) helps people affected by humanitarian crises in over 40 crisis-affected countries, including the climate crisis, to survive, recover and rebuild their lives. The IRC has been working in Nigeria since 2012 when the organisation responded to flooding in Kogi State. The IRC runs eight field offices in northeast Nigeria and a country office in the capital Abuja, providing health, nutrition, water, sanitation and hygiene, and education services.
www.rescue.org
