by Hideshi Tokuchi, President of the Research Institute for Peace and Security (RIPS) and Asia correspondent of this magazine, Tokyo
Space is important not only for scientific research and economy but also for international security. Historically, space was regulated by international arms control agreements earlier than nuclear weapons or cyberspace. It only took ten years to establish the Outer Space Treaty after the first successful launch of an artificial satellite in 1957. This was probably possible due to the scarcity of actors in space development in the early days of the post-second world war era.
Today’s situation is different. More than 50 countries have artificial satellites. Space is used for civilian and military purposes, and both uses are inseparably connected. The critical importance of space is clear in the Russia-Ukraine war. There is a view that even today wars are decided by guns and munitions, but space is a force multiplier, to say the least. Space capabilities make much difference as shown by the effects of satellite imagery, GPS data and Starlink-guided drones, for example. Space has become “a decisive domain”.
Great power competition in space
Great power competition between the US and China has set the basic tone of today’s international relations. It has a grave impact on outer space, too. The two powers were cooperating in space for some time after the end of the cold war. The US used Chinese rockets to launch its space assets into orbit, but those good old days are gone.
The US remains the leader…
While the funding, the technological level and the innovative spirit of the US remain overwhelming, China is rapidly catching up in its space capabilities.
China’s People’s Liberation Army plays a pivotal role in its space activities. China’s space policy has a long history dating back to Mao Zedong’s “two bombs and one satellite” policy motivated by the Korean war. While China was the fifth country in artificial satellite launching, it was the third to achieve manned space flight with its own rocket. It launched a quantum science satellite called Mozi for quantum-encoded communications in 2016, which was “a 21st century Sputnik moment”. China, with its own space station and positioning system, recorded the highest number of rocket launches worldwide in 2018.
… but China has great ambitions
China prioritises the military use of space. It already conducted an ASAT (anti-satellite weapons) test in 2007. The destruction created more than 3,000 pieces of space debris, much of which will remain in orbit for decades and pose a serious threat to other space objects. The US advantage in space development and activities will remain unchanged for the time being, but we should not be complacent about it as China is trying to become a space power to achieve its dream of making China stronger.
Chinese attempts high above the Earth will have a grave impact on our daily life and national and international security on Earth. As the serious nature of the issue is not easy to understand without scientific knowledge, it is important to remain vigilant regarding Chinese space activity, to share the information with the public in order to maintain the rules-based order on Earth and ensure stable use of space for the prosperity of mankind.
Japan’s National Security Strategy and policy toward space
Japan’s National Security Strategy (NSS) and National Defense Strategy (NDS) set forth ways and means for Japan to survive in the age of the great power competition.
Fostering space security
The NSS states, “To ensure safe and stable utilisation of space, (…) Japan will strengthen its response capabilities in the field of space security,” and “Japan will drive forward measures to capitalise on Japan’s overall space-related capabilities in the field of security.” Based on this recognition, the NSS refers to various issues including Space Situational Awareness (SSA), space debris and rule-making as examples of cooperation with like-minded countries. The NDS states, “Since the domains of space, cyber, and electromagnetic spectrum are the basic infrastructure for the people’s lives as well as being vitally important for the defence of Japan to carry out cross-domain operations, Japan will reinforce capabilities across the whole government.”
The Space Security Strategy
In accordance with the NSS, the Government of Japan established its Space Security Initiative (SSI) in June 2023 to set the vision for the basis of space security over the next decade. Based on the recognition that the use of space is directly linked to terrestrial military superiority and that threats in space are growing rapidly, the SSI defines Japan’s space security objective “to promote the peace and prosperity of Japan and the safety and security of our citizens through outer space, together with our ally, like-minded countries, and others to maintain the stable use of and free access to outer space.”
The SSI has two types of space security in it: “security from space” and “security in space.” The former is about using space capability for national security, and the latter is about defending space capability against growing threats and risks in space. As Japan recognises that space has become an arena of intensifying geopolitical competition, the SSI declares Japan’s will to strengthen cooperation with its allies and like-minded countries, while promoting the unified efforts of its relevant ministries and agencies to ensure the two types of space security.
Japan-Europe security cooperation on space
As both Japan and Europe have been trying to enhance the rules-based international order, space security will be a new horizon for their cooperation. Article 16 of the Japan-EU Strategic Partnership Agreement includes the “security aspect of space activities” in the menu of outer space cooperation. The Japan-EU Space Policy Dialogue has been held five times since 2014 to exchange information on the latest space policies on each side, foster mutual trust and discuss space cooperation. The Japan-NATO Individually Tailored Partnership Programme for 2023–2026 includes space security as one of the 16 goals, and it is expected to promote dialogue and practical cooperation on space security accordingly.
Europe is competitive in space development as it shares human resources and funding through the European Space Agency (ESA). It is a great advantage of European teamwork whereas Japan lacks funding, but its technological capabilities can be underestimated. It is important to generate synergy on both sides, capitalising on the recent momentum for cooperation.
Both sides are expected to work together to enhance Space Situational Awareness (SSA), to address space debris and to shape equitable international rules for the use of space. For this purpose, it is increasingly important for both sides to align with the US and to stay vigilant of the space activities of those who try to disrupt the rules-based international order, inclu-ding China.
