by Luke Hally, Founding Director of Terra Nova Consultancy, Brussels
The security landscape of the 21st century is evolving rapidly, bringing new challenges that policymakers must swiftly address to adapt to the changing dynamics of the post-unipolar world. Key factors driving this change include the emergence of artificial intelligence, cyber defence, drone technology, and, notably, space defence.
These new threats have emerged with unprecedented speed and intensity, demanding immediate action from EU policymakers to safeguard space security. To effectively counter these threats, the European Union must leverage all available resources and allied interests. Particularly, the EU should look towards cooperative efforts with like-minded partners, especially those in the east, to prepare and defend against the possibility of total war or hybrid warfare scenarios. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine heightens this sense of urgency.
Threat typology
A major concern in space security today is the progress of anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons by certain states, notably Russia, seeking to disrupt European strategic capabilities. If armed with nuclear capabilities, this development could breach treaties like the Outer Space Treaty, endangering EU and allied military satellites and other space assets.
During the cold war, the US and the Soviet Union explored ASAT weapons, including nuclear tests. Russia’s recent ASAT test on the Kosmos 1408 satellite in 2021 showcases its pursuit of such capabilities despite denying intentions for nuclear-armed ASAT systems.
Compounding this threat is the rapid advancement of hypersonic missile systems, like Russia’s A-235 anti-ballistic missile system, tested on Kosmos 1408. This system poses a dual threat due to its nuclear capabilities and purported hypersonic speed, which is challenging to counter, especially in space, given the vast distances and atmospheric differences.
Risks posed
Various threats pose significant risks to vital systems crucial for European states, such as telecommunications, navigation, and missile defence. Of particular concern is Russia’s reported development of a space-based nuclear anti-satellite weapon, heightening the peril to European space infrastructure. If unleashed, this weapon could indiscriminately endanger satellites, disrupting crucial services reliant on space infrastructure. Space debris emerging from any use of space-borne ordinance would endanger satellites and the International Space Station, heighten collision risks and threaten European space infrastructure. Risks include disrupted communications, impaired navigation systems, compromised weather forecasting, early warning system failure, and large economic impacts; these risks greatly jeopardise European security. Additionally, a nuclear explosion in space could produce a powerful electromagnetic pulse, damaging a wider array of satellite constellations. Russia’s deployment of anti-satellite weapons challenges efforts to limit offensive space weapons, emphasising the need for robust measures to protect and advance EU space assets.
Potential collaborative Asian partners
Collaborative aims to counter these threats could be found in a variety of like-minded Asian partners, such as India and Japan for example.
India – broadening the dialogue
The foundation for this cooperation is that India and Europe want to improve their political standing in space affairs. In this context, joint research and development of space assets can help them both reach their goals, such as India’s Chandrayaan-3 moon landing. Issues of technology transfer and industrial cooperation, however, complicate the whole situation. But it is crucial to bear in mind that space represents a real opportunity for broadening the dialogue for mutual benefit and to recognise the value of deepening discussion, including a specific reflection on better integration of the competencies and experience of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and the European Space Agency (ESA) at the political level. India would make for a viable partner in the rising global power tensions involving other large regional actors.
Japan – joint space defence efforts
Exploring partnerships in space research, Japan, through its advanced capabilities via JAXA, can contribute significantly to joint space defence efforts. Potential collaboration with ESA and the European Defence Agency (EDA) could enhance satellite tech for communication, observation, navigation, and situational awareness, boosting overall defence capabilities.
Japan’s evolving defence strategy, particularly in the space sector, aligns with its national strategy, which highlights three key areas: security from space, security in space, and support for the space industry. Notably, Japan aims to incorporate satellite constellations for monitoring potential targets and developing systems to detect and intercept hypersonic weapons, areas that align with EU interests and could foster cooperation.
However, Japan faces challenges in implementing these ambitious plans due to technical expertise gaps and budget constraints. This presents an opportunity for collaboration between European and Japanese agencies to fill these gaps. Cooperation with Japan could be the optimal partnership for bolstering joint space operations tailored to the security needs of both parties.
One area of shared interest is hypersonic interception, given the proximity of large regional adversaries and their hypersonic ballistic threat capabilities. The development of counter-hypersonic capabilities, like the Glide Phase Interceptor programme, demonstrates the potential for collaboration in addressing such threats.
The H3 rocket also represents an example of an attractive collaborative model through its user-friendly design, reliability, and cost-effectiveness. Collaborative efforts in space transportation technology could further enhance both parties’ capabilities.
In conclusion, international cooperation, especially in space security rulemaking and ground-based security infrastructure development, is crucial for establishing a stable space environment. Collaborative projects such as hypersonic interception and advancements in space transportation technology present opportunities for fruitful partnerships between the EU and Japan, ultimately contributing to space security.
Conclusion
Europe faces unprecedented challenges in space security due to emerging threats like anti-satellite weaponry and hypersonic missile systems, notably from Russia. The potential emergent risks and consequences underscore the need for effective collaboration. Partnerships with like-minded Asian nations, such as India and Japan, offer valuable opportunities to enhance space defence capabilities. India’s Chandrayaan-3 mission exemplifies potential joint ventures, while Japan’s advanced capabilities align well with Europe’s defensive focus. By leveraging expertise and resources through international cooperation, Europe can strengthen its defence against space-based threats and foster a stable and secure space environment.